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Waynepipmad
31-05-05, 11:05
Are we doing one chaps?? :confused: :)

Robert Burns
31-05-05, 12:05
Ahem..... Pablo?

Pablo
31-05-05, 12:05
We should.... I'll volunteer to run it as best I can, but life is hectic ATM, so if I need to pass the buck, you have been forewarned...

Lions v. BoP: Lions to win by 18

Simon Griffiths
31-05-05, 12:05
Here's my prediction:

Lions by 8 points.

Pablo
31-05-05, 12:05
A reminder of the rules:

Attempt to predict the winning team and the margin of victory for every game of the Lions tour.

Points are a bad thing and are awarded according to how badly awry your prediction is.

An exact prediction gains you a bonus of -5 points.

You receive one point for each actual game point by which your prediction is adrift. eg. predicting a winning margin of 4 points for a game that actual ends 21-14 earns you 3 points.

You receive a penalty of 10 points in addition to your margin points for predicting the wrong winner. For instance, taking the Wales v England game from the first round of this year's 6N as an example, if someone had predicted England to win by 4 points, they would score 16 points: 6 for being away from the true result by 6 points, and 10 for the wrong winner.

If you incorrectly predict a draw, you receive a penalty of 5 points on top of the margin points.


This is the system some friends and I used to use for our NFL predictathon, and we found it to work pretty fairly - not too much effort required on the parts of the players or the scorer either :D

Pablo
31-05-05, 12:05
Incidentally, since there are so many more matches in this tour than there were in the 6N, the 6N system of making up for missed predictions isn't punitive enough (since it's based on averages, it is possible to score better than the dedicated regulars who get it wrong that week). If you miss a prediction for this predicatathon, you will be credited with the average number of points for that match PLUS a penalty of 25 points, which should hopefully have the desired effect...

Predictions edited after the match in question has started will be ignored, treated as if no prediction had been made, plus a supplementary sportsmanship penalty of 25 points. Play nicely, guys!

SimonSmith
31-05-05, 12:05
Has the Lions team been announced yet? Because obviously that will have a great impact on my scientific rationale! ;)

Simon Griffiths
31-05-05, 12:05
See the thread Lions v Bay of Plenty (http://www.rugbyrefs.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3208#post3208).

That one has the line-up on it.

Robert Burns
31-05-05, 13:05
Lions by 24

Pablo
31-05-05, 15:05
On a side note, to tidy things up and therefore make my job a little easier, please start a new thread for each match. I've changed the title of this one accordingly. After each match, I'll post the prediction results at the end of the thread and then lock it. After the first match, I'll create a stickied thread with the leaderboard, which will be updated after each game...

Happy predicting guys!

PeterTC
31-05-05, 15:05
Lions by 21.

Simon Thomas
31-05-05, 16:05
Lions by 18 points

SimonSmith
31-05-05, 16:05
Lions by c. 20

Waynepipmad
01-06-05, 08:06
Lions by 8

Bryan
01-06-05, 13:06
Lions by 16

robertti
01-06-05, 15:06
Lions by 33

Pablo
03-06-05, 11:06
Predictions so far:

everybody has predicted the Lions to win, by the following margins:
Pablo 18
Noddy 8
Rob 24
PeterTC 21
Simon T 18
Simffy 20
Wayne 8
Bryan 16
Tim 33
Didds 27

You have 20 hours left to get your predictions in!

didds
03-06-05, 13:06
oh... all right then.

Lions by.....

..... 27

didds

Simon Griffiths
04-06-05, 11:06
Cracking match - Bryan was the closest with those of on 18 and then 8 points close behind - how I was willing O'Gara to miss that last kick - he could have done me the decency of missing that one! ;)

robertti
04-06-05, 11:06
Those Lions were woeful in the first half. How can you expect them to even stand a chance of beating the All Blacks if they can only beat an NPC Team by 14 points? They also didnt do my tipping any favours either, I think I must be coming last at the moment!

OB..
04-06-05, 13:06
Those Lions were woeful in the first half.
.... apart from scoring 3 tries in the first quarter of an hour.
Once BOP started to get some ball (they lost their first two lineouts) the Lions midfield defence looked a little porous. BOP were well worth 17-17 at half time.

However the Lions sorted themselves out in the second half, scoring three tries to nil. All in all, a good tough workout.

The real downside was the loss of Dallaglio. He was looking good, but will now take no further part in the tour (for the second time:mad: )

robertti
05-06-05, 11:06
Yes sorry OB I meant after they were 17-0 up ;)

Pablo
06-06-05, 10:06
Actually margin was 14 points to the Lions. Scores as follows:

Pablo 4
Noddy 6
Rob 10
PeterTC 7
Simon T 4
Simffy 6
Wayne 6
Bryan 2
Tim 19
Didds 13