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Thread: The effect of referee of rugby betting

      
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    Default The effect of referee of rugby betting

    Morning all,

    I've just registered for tho forum and was wondering if I could put a question to you all. This certainly seems to be a knowledgable community so any help would be really appreciated.

    I run a rugby betting tipping service which specialises in total points bets. The effect that a referee's style can have on the outcome of these tips is, as you would imagine, massive. I find it incredibly hard to research a referee's record in terms of points scored in a match/number of penalties (for attacking team/defending team).

    If any of you could recommend a resource or offer some insight on this weekend's referees, I'd be incredibly grateful - anything would be useful!

    Thanks!


    Referees this weekend are...

    Premiership
    Bath vs Leicester
    @ Recreation Ground
    Referee: Craig Maxwell-Keys
    Assistant Referees: Peter Allan, Roger Baileff
    TMO: Trevor Fisher

    Gloucester vs Northampton
    @ Kingsholm
    Referee: JP Doyle
    Assistant Referees: Andrew Small, Andrew Pearce
    TMO: Geoffrey Warren

    Harlequins vs Exeter
    @ Twickenham Stoop
    Referee: Wayne Barnes
    Assistant Referees: Paul Burton, Nigel Carrick
    TMO: Sean Davey

    Newcastle vs Sale
    @ Kingston Park
    Referee: Matthew Carley
    Assistant Referees: Tim Wigglesworth, John Meredith
    TMO: Graham Hughes

    Wasps vs London Irish
    @ Ricoh Arena
    Referee: Thomas Foley
    Assistant Referees: Greg Garner, Kevin Stewart
    TMO: Stuart Terheege

    Worcester vs Saracens
    @ Sixways
    Referee: Luke Pearce
    Assistant Referees: Andy Watson, Jonathan Healy
    TMO: David Sainsbury


    Crusaders v Reds
    @ AMI Stadium, Christchurch
    Referee: Brendon Pickerill
    Assistant Referees: Jamie Nutbrown, Kane McBride
    TMO: Chris Wratt

    Brumbies v Bulls
    @ GIO Stadium, Canberra
    Referee: Ben O’Keeffe
    Assistant Referees: Will Houston, Ed Martin
    TMO: Peter Marshall

    Sunwolves v Force
    @ Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium, Tokyo
    Referee: Mike Fraser
    Assistant Referees: Paul Williams, Aki Aso
    TMO: Takashi Hareda

    Chiefs v Highlanders
    @ FMG Stadium, Hamilton
    Referee: Angus Gardner
    Assistant Referees: Chris Pollock, Angus Mabey
    TMO: Shane McDermott

    Waratahs v Cheetahs
    @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney
    Referee: Nic Berry
    Assistant Referees: Andrew Lees, Graham Cooper
    TMO: George Ayoub

    Sharks v Hurricanes
    @ Growthpoint Kings Park, Durban
    Referee: Marius van der Westhuizen
    Assistant Referees: Quinton Immelman, Rodney Bonaparte
    TMO: Marius Jonker


    Kings v Bulls
    @ Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
    Referee: Federico Anselmi
    Assistant Referees: Rasta Rasivhenge, Archie Sehlako
    TMO: Christie du Preez

  2. #2
    Rugby Club Member BigClothesSir's Avatar

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    Default Re: The effect of referee of rugby betting

    Seems to have missed out:-

    Northwich Ladies v Burnley Ladies
    @Northwich RUFC
    Referee: BigClothesSir
    Assistant Referees: A couple of subs
    TMO: None

  3. #3

    Referees in England
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    Default Re: The effect of referee of rugby betting

    you seriously think refs are going to advise you on betting?
    Ciaran Trainor

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    Rugby Club Member BigClothesSir's Avatar

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    Default Re: The effect of referee of rugby betting

    Quote Originally Posted by ctrainor View Post
    you seriously think refs are going to advise you on betting?
    Especially as he has "ManU" in his username

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    Smile Re: The effect of referee of rugby betting

    I thought that you lads, if you watch rugby and are interested in refereeing, might have some insight into which refs tend to favour attacking sides.

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    Default Re: The effect of referee of rugby betting

    As a Leicester fan, the username is paying homage to manu tuilagi rather than the red devils.

    And insight into your own referring style is more than welcome bigclothessir!

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    Referees in England


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    Default Re: The effect of referee of rugby betting

    I'd be surprised if the referee affects the total score very much, if at all.

    I'm prepared to keep an open mind, but I'd want to see some good statistical analysis to support the notion..

    But given you say
    Quote Originally Posted by manu99 View Post
    I find it incredibly hard to research a referee's record in terms of points scored in a match/number of penalties (for attacking team/defending team).
    I suggest you have little evidence for the claim that
    Quote Originally Posted by manu99 View Post
    . The effect that a referee's style can have on the outcome of these tips is, as you would imagine, massive.

  8. #8

    Referees in America
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    Default Re: The effect of referee of rugby betting

    It isn't the referee, it's the teams.
    The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.
    Marcus Aurelius

    Man may do as he will; he may not will what he wills
    Arthur Schopenhauer

    Tullamore Dew, the Afghan Wigs, and many, many strippers - how to get over your ex. How true.

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    Default Re: The effect of referee of rugby betting

    That's fair enough mate and I don't have any solid long-term evidence (which is why I posted) but it is possible to notice trends.

    For example, the Premiership referee Tim Wigglesworth tends to referee games which see fewer points scored. Now, of course, one can blame other factors like the teams playing, the weather, etc. However, I watch a lot of rugby, and Wigglesworth, in my opinion, is a very picky referee - by the book rather than feel for the game. He's incredibly quick to the whistle, particularly for holding on.

    I could be wrong but I feel that it's inevitable that in a game where the ref exerts such an influence as the rules of the game are subjective, that some referees will have an impact on the number of points scored.

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    Default Re: The effect of referee of rugby betting

    ESPN Scrum Rugby has match official stats.
    All pro clubs do referee analysis on individual trends and tendencies to penalize this or that. So lots and lots of blurb is out there. Not entirely sure how you might get your hands on it, nor how objective the analysis is from club to club.
    "We demand strict proof for opinions we dislike, but are satisfied with mere hints for what we’re inclined to accept."
    John Henry Newman

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