RWC Japan 2019 - Predictions

[L'irlandais]

Source RWC 2019 Pools
Starting in 50 days time, forty eight matches will be played to determine the winner of RWC.
(20th September until 2nd November 2019)

Would anyone like to make an early prediction? Firstly, about who gets past the Pool stages, in what order; since the Semi finals are a little harder to predict, without fore knowledge of usual upsets in the pecking order, early doors in this competition.

Biggest upset of the tournament? Along the lines of Japan's defeat of RSA last time out.
Is a European team guaranteed a semi final place this RWC?

Pool A: Ireland Scotland Japan ¹ Russia Samoa
Pool B: New Zealand South Africa Italy Namibia Canada
Pool C: England France Argentina ² USA Tonga
Pool D: Australia Wales Georgia Fiji Uruguay

Quarter finals:
CD England vs Wales
BA New Zealand vs Japan
DC Australia vs Argentina
AB Ireland vs RSA ³

Semi finals;
England vs New Zealand
Argentina vs RSA

3rd Place playoff: RSA vs England
Final: New Zealand vs Argentina

Fourth title for NZ unfortunately.

1 (Long shot, but I can see Japan doing a number on Scotland in front of the home crowd. How many folks believe that the Scottish victory over England in the Six Nations will have any bearing on that Pool game? Personally, I don't.)
2 (Loathe as I am to write off France, I think Argentina may well be the dark Horse of this RWC.) Yes I know two upsets in one tournament is pushing it a bit far. Especially since the Pumas haven’t managed to beat the other Southern Hemisphere teams thus far, this season.
3 (No I don't think, Ireland will finally progress to the Semis, they have always been poor in the RWc. But then I don't see that RSA are up to much these days either, so who knows maybe Ireland’s year has come. That said, Argentina's game on the 10th of August may tell us something of how my (unlikely) semi final might pan out.)

Perhaps we could start a prediction thread on Match Officials too. Biggest call? Car crash game? What do you lot think?

[Dickie E]

Car crash game? Hold my beer
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[didds]

its difficult to see any other pool winners/2nd from pools B&D

A&C are both potential groups of death

[Rich_NL]

Biggest call is almost certain to be a high tackle/shoulder charge card, and controversy over whether or not it exactly matched the descriptions in WR's handy flowchart.

Biggest non-calls are going to be anything around approach direction and staying on feet at the ruck, every few seconds, every match :P

[tewdric]

I'm going to go out on a limb and back a resurgent RSA to meet Wales in the final, assuming Wales dont break too many more in training.

I suspect France will do better than anyone thinks they will, potentially reaching the quarters or even the semis if they get past Australia. If France and Argentina turn up, as I expect they will, England could be in trouble and will have to kick their big match choking habit to get out of the pool.

I can't see Japan getting out if pool A ahead of Scotland but there is a banana skin there for sure for the Scots (as there is with Wales and Fiji, although with a fag paper now separating Wzles and NZ at the top if the rankings, I'd hope Wales now have the steadiness and ability to get safely through).

[Rich_NL]

I suspect France will do better than anyone thinks they will, potentially reaching the quarters or even the semis if they get past Australia. If France and Argentina turn up, as I expect they will, England could be in trouble and will have to kick their big match choking habit to get out of the pool.

Argentina always turn up. But I disagree on France - their problem is with the coaching and decision/communication structure, not with a lack of form players (which can be a big variable, but which France can generally deliver). They've not done anything significant to remedy that since the 6N, I don't see how the same players and same coaching staff are suddenly going to fix it by themselves. They had a close game against Italy, and got thumped by England.

[Dickie E]

If NZ and England top their pools, is it possible for them to meet in the final?

If it is, then NZ to beat Engalnd by 10 points for the cup.

[crossref]

Just like last time, England in the toughest group , with three of the top eight

[L'irlandais]

If NZ and England top their pools, is it possible for them to meet in the final?

If it is, then NZ to beat Engalnd by 10 points for the cup.

Nope. In my simulation, I had England and New Zealand first in their respective pools, this means they will meet in the semis. Now if RSA was to top the pool, then an England vs New Zealand final is potentially on.

tewdric is not wrong, perhaps a simulation based on current rankings might better reflect current form.

New Zealand (91.54)
Wales (89.96)
Ireland (88.69)
South Africa (86.30)

England (86.27)
Australia (81.91)
Scotland (80.17)
France (79.4)

Let’s see if those quarter final pairings are even possible.
So yes based on current rankings we could see the top eight progress to the quarter finals, avoiding any banana skins. Next hiccup is eithr England or France can come second. Scotland, Australia progressing is realistic enough.

Then we’d also need to check if the top 4 could make the semis.
The problem here is Ireland’s path to the semis passes by either New Zealand or RSA. So one of the three will be eliminated. Wales could top their pool, given England has slipped to fifth in the rankings with RSA rising to fourth.

[L'irlandais]

Choose your own quarterfinal winners.

CD England vs Australia
BA RSA vs Scotland
DC Wales vs France
AB Ireland vs New Zealand

That would have the semis looking like this.

England vs RSA
Ireland vs France

But let’s be honest the likelihood of three European teams in the semifinals isn’t that great. Much as I’d like to see either Ireland or Scotland progress to the semifinal stage, to spice up this (predictable) competition.

Australia vs RSA
New Zealand vs Wales or France

Who of the bottom eight could upset that applecart?

Fiji
Argentina
Japan
Georgia

Italy
Tonga
United States
Samoa

Italy have risen to 13th. Undoubtedly one they they will chalk up wins over, England, Australia and New Zealand, however I imagine it will be following a significant leap in form. Right now they’d struggle to beat eight placed France.
Japan could potentially beat any of the top eight, with home support and some freakish food poisoning; only no way they could all of the top eight, one after another. That’s simply too many, first win over X, followed by first win over Y. Not going to happen. Does anyone know if Suzie moved to Japan recently ?

For me Argentina could do it, possibly. Not probable, but...