• RWC Referee Stats & Trends

    Here is a nice little chart to show how our refs are doing in certain areas, up to the end of round 2.



    So what does this nice chart tell us?
    1. Allain Rolland is most likely to give a penalty at the tackle area with Wayne Barnes* being least likely.
    2. Nigel Owens is most likely to catch offside offenders, with once again Wayne Barnes* being least likely.
    3. Bryce Lawrence is most likely to give a penalty at the scrum, with Dave Pearson least likely.
    4. Allain Rolland is most likely to give discipline penalties (Collapsing maul, dissent, high tackle, etc..), with Wayne Barnes* least likely.
    5. Roman Poite is most likely to award a FK at the scrum, with Bryce Lawrence not having given any FK's at all yet.
    6. Scrums collapse and are reset most with Bryce Lawrence, and least with Roman Poite
    7. You are most likely to see tries scored in a game with Nigel Owens, and least likely in a game with Bryce Lawrence.
    8. The most penalty goals are scored with Dave Pearson in charge, and the least with Nigel Owens.
    9. Happily, all referees are fairly consistent with the amount of stoppages in a game, the average being 68 and most being between 67 & 71. Only Jonathan Kaplan is different with an average 61 stoppage per game.
    Do the stats give any insight into the future games? Well, it's really too early to tell if there is a trend here or not, and to be fair, these stats are from only 2 games for each referee, *but 1 game for Barnes so not really an average for him yet. And Bryce Lawrence has been in the middle of two forward dominated games, which we all know give less tries, and more scrums. We'll see how it irons out over the next round.
    Comments 16 Comments
    1. Dickie E's Avatar
      Dickie E -
      has BL really only awarded 1 try in 2 games.
    1. Dixpat's Avatar
      Dixpat -
      Quote Originally Posted by Dickie E View Post
      has BL really only awarded 1 try in 2 games.
      No the teams he has ref'd have been so incompetent in attack, or so good in defence that they have only scored 1 try in 2 games BL has ref'd

      To put more succintly - a try is scored when someone is good enough to depress the ball over the oppositions goal line
    1. Robert Burns's Avatar
      Robert Burns -
      Quote Originally Posted by Dickie E View Post
      has BL really only awarded 1 try in 2 games.
      Yes, but as stated, Eng/Arg was a huge forwards battle, and Aus/Ire was the same (forced that way by the irish).
    1. Jenko's Avatar
      Jenko -
      Would it not be better to have the % figures for the sub categories? eg you state that WB is least likely to give a penalty at the tackle Wheras AR is most likely. If we look at % WB gives 60% of his penalties at tackle AR 57.45%. Stats, Stats and damn lies!!
    1. Robert Burns's Avatar
      Robert Burns -
      lol, I could do that yes, but it's working on averages, so all the same really.

      You can prove anything with stats, you just need to look hard enough.
    1. OB..'s Avatar
      OB.. -
      Quote Originally Posted by Robert Burns View Post
      You can prove anything with stats
      Actually that is dead wrong. You cannot prove anything with statistics; you can only show how well the data fits a hypothesis. If you have the wrong hypothesis, you haven't got the right answer, however well the statistics may fit.
      Allain Rolland is most likely to give a penalty at the tackle area with Wayne Barnes* being least likely.
      That assumes several things: that both had roughly the same number of tackles; that both had the same number of actual material infringements at the tackle; that both used management of potential offences equally well; etc. Anyway the differences are not statistically significant, so you cannot draw useful conclusions.

      "Statistics" has two meanings: the actual data; and the methods of analysing that data. The former is relatively easy. The latter is a specialist skill. In the scientific world if you get your statistics wrong, your project will fail. In politics it may win you an election. In other words, you cannot fool an experiment, but you can fool an electorate.
    1. KML1's Avatar
      KML1 -
      Not sure how a referee can have 129% of bad scrums....
    1. Robert Burns's Avatar
      Robert Burns -
      I agree, hence why I added the bit at the bottom that basically say, these are crap stats as we are only 2 games in.

      Interestingly though, average penalty counts are fairly similar, as are average stoppages, and even scrums are quite close (13-19).

      I can see them only becoming more consistent as the tournament carries on.
    1. Robert Burns's Avatar
      Robert Burns -
      1st game: 6 Scrums for which there were 7 resets & 8 collapses.
      2nd game: 22 Scrums, 8 resets, 13 collapses.

      Total: 26 scrums, 15 resets & 21 collapses.

      Basically every scrum Bryce has had has gone down, with quite a few going down more than once or been reset, but as stated too, both his games have been very forward orientated games.
    1. Phil E's Avatar
      Phil E -
      Quote Originally Posted by Dixpat View Post
      a try is scored when someone is good enough to depress the ball over the oppositions goal line

      How do you depress the ball?

      Do you tell it, it's father was round
    1. Dixpat's Avatar
      Dixpat -
      Quote Originally Posted by Phil E View Post
      How do you depress the ball?

      Do you tell it, it's father was round
      Touche

      I was thinking of my emotions watching England play
    1. rugbydave's Avatar
      rugbydave -
      Quote Originally Posted by Robert Burns View Post
      1st game: 6 Scrums for which there were 7 resets & 8 collapses.
      2nd game: 22 Scrums, 8 resets, 13 collapses.

      Total: 26 scrums, 15 resets & 21 collapses.

      Basically every scrum Bryce has had has gone down, with quite a few going down more than once or been reset, but as stated too, both his games have been very forward orientated games.
      Could you clarify these stats a little. I don't see how you can have 7 resets but only six scrums... unless you mean a scrum was reset more than once? The total line is confusing too... 36 "problems" (i.e. reset collapse) but only 26 scrums in the first place? I guess I don't understand how exactly, or what exactly is being counted.

      Also, do you have a table with totals, not averages?
    1. Robert Burns's Avatar
      Robert Burns -
      Yes, I do.

      And yes, you are right, some scrums have collapsed/reset more than once. I'll add the total table in a min.
    1. Robert Burns's Avatar
      Robert Burns -
      Totals:
    1. vimpe22's Avatar
      vimpe22 -
      Quote Originally Posted by Robert Burns View Post
      Totals:
      If there are resets should you not add it as an additional scrum . That i thinl is the way stats are taken in the IRB guidelines for CMO
    1. Robert Burns's Avatar
      Robert Burns -
      no. it is the same scrum. hence why the game continues if a scrum is reset after time has expired.
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